Saturday, September 24, 2011

Misinformed opinions about tobacco taxes and smuggling

This is my response to an article by Neal Cruz (High cigarette taxes will encourage smuggling, Philippine Daily Inquirer, September 20, 2011)

Ducky Paredes also makes a similarly misinformed opinion in his article (Learning from Singapore, Malaya, May 24, 2011)


Strong international evidence and experience exists to support tobacco tax increases, because they are effective not only in raising government revenues but also in reducing consumption of a harmful product, especially among vulnerable sectors such as the young and the poor. This is why parties to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the Philippines among them, are obligated to implement tax policies and, where appropriate, price policies, on tobacco products so as to contribute to national health objectives aimed at reducing tobacco consumption.

The tobacco industry often argues that smuggling will increase with any tax increase. The international evidence however shows that tobacco smuggling is generally higher in low-income countries where taxes and prices are low, while smuggling is low in high-income countries where tobacco taxes and prices are high. This correlates well with the levels of anti-smuggling enforcement and corruption in each country. While a price differential across borders provides an incentive for smuggling, it is the laxity of anti-smuggling measures and the propensity for corruption that facilitates the actual smuggling. Conversely, if there is very tough anti-smuggling enforcement with stiff penalties, this is a strong disincentive that discourages smuggling.

"Long and porous borders" are also cited by the tobacco industry as an argument against raising taxes because it is "impossible" to defend these borders against smugglers.  Aside from being an obvious insult to our customs and border patrol officials, this argument also rings hollow. There are many countries with long and porous borders that have strong anti-smuggling measures in place, and which have high tobacco taxes and prices, such as the UK, Japan, and Australia.

Singapore

Neal Cruz is mistaken regarding smoking prevalence in Singapore, which he says was unchanged from 2001 to 2007. Based on a 2010 ERC report (an industry-oriented publication), per capita cigarette consumption dropped steadily from just under 1,200 sticks in 1990 to under 400 sticks in 2006. This is in consonance with the declining adult smoking prevalence rate which dropped from 18.3% in 1992 to 15.2% in 1998 to 12.6% in 2004, and which correlates well with the regular tax increases during the same period, averaging a 4% price increase per year. Additionally, Singapore has banned all tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship and promoted smoke-free public places since the 1970s and also began implementing pictorial health warnings in 2004.  

Contrary to what the industry is claiming, Singapore has been able to successfully curb cigarette smuggling and keep its incidence low. In 2007 and 2008, according to a Singapore Customs Media Release in 2008, around 4.4% of cigarettes were smuggled, but this was significantly reduced in 2009 to around 2.37% (Singapore Customs Enforcement Data 2010). This can be attributed to Singapore’s integrated and multi-pronged-government tobacco control strategy that includes not only demand reduction measures (less people smoking), but also supply reduction measures such as strengthening customs enforcement, which subsequently saw an increased number of arrests and seizures for cigarette smuggling.  It is this increased anti-smuggling effort that has resulted in increased seizure volumes, not that there has been an increase in smuggling.

Unfortunately, there has been no tobacco tax increase in Singapore since 2005, and given Singapore's economic growth, this has made cigarettes more affordable and contributed to the slowly increasing per capita consumption seen from 2006 to 2009 (also ERC data) and the increase in adult smoking prevalence from 12.6% in 2004 to 13.6% in 2007.  Tobacco industry puppets attribute this to cheap smuggled cigarettes, but the truth is that it is primarily driven by increasing affordability of legal cigarettes due to the stagnation of tobacco excise tax rates since 2005.

Malaysia

According to the ERC 2010 data, contrary to what Neal Cruz claims (that smoking incidence was virtually unchanged), per capita cigarette consumption also declined steadily in Malaysia from around 1,100 sticks in 1990 to under 700 sticks in 2009.  It was the repeated tax increases over the years that drove this decline, as well as a ban on all tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship in the past decade and the government’s “Tak Nak” media campaign. In 2009, Malaysia also started requiring pictorial health warnings on all cigarette packs.

The Confederation of Malaysian Tobacco Manufacturers (CMTM), which is actually three transnational tobacco companies (British American Tobacco, Philip Morris International, and Japan Tobacco International) that control 97% of the local market, is the one claiming that smuggling accounts for close to 40% of the local market. Given that 97% of the market is controlled by these 3 large companies, primarily BAT Malaysia, and given that most of the smuggled brands are reported by them as not being their company brands, it seems unrealistic to believe that 4 out of 10 cigarette packs sold in Malaysia are illegal.

New York City

Over the past decade, New York City has prohibited smoking in virtually all indoor workplaces, including bars and restaurants; raised excise taxes; and launched a number of hard-hitting anti-tobacco media campaigns to significantly raise public awareness.  The results? Prior to 2002, the prevalence of smoking among adults had remained steady at about 22% for a decade. But between 2002 and 2010, that number dropped to 14%, resulting in more than 400,000 fewer adult smokers in New York City. Furthermore, between 2001 and 2009, smoking prevalence among students aged 14-18 years dropped from 18% to 8%.  Contrary to the doomsayers’ predictions about the economic calamity that would come with strong tobacco policies, New York City’s economy has been unaffected. And with consumer demand being that low, how does that fit with the tobacco industry’s claims that cigarette smuggling is rising in leaps and bounds?

Australia

It is surprising that Neal Cruz recommends Australia as a best model for the Philippines to follow, because, similar to claims in Malaysia, the tobacco industry (led by BAT Australia) is claiming that 1 out of 6 cigarettes sold there is illicit.  Can any reasonable person imagine this happening?  If it is so rampant, this would mean that 1 out of six smokers knows where to obtain these illegal cigarettes, and wouldn’t the government authorities be aware of this as well?

The facts around tobacco tax increases being pegged to the CPI are also not exactly as they have been presented.  The truth is that prior to a 25% tax increase in 2010, Australia had not raised tobacco excise in real terms since 1999.  The tax increases in nominal terms that resulted from tax rates being in line with the CPI may have increased government revenues, but they certainly did not produce the decline in smoking rates that were expected. There were still around 15,000 Australians dying each year from tobacco-related diseases.  Hence, the government raised taxes by 25% in 2010, at the same time announcing that there would also be significant tax increases in 2011 and 2012. In the same effort, the Australian government also announced that it would require the world’s first plain packaging of tobacco products beginning in 2012.

Finally

The Philippines does need an equivalent of the Australian excise tax system, which is indexed to inflation but also significantly raises prices so as to effectively discourage consumption of a harmful product that causes so much preventable disease, disability, and death, as well as suffering, among Filipinos.

For a discussion of cigarette affordability and the needed tobacco tax reforms needed to correct the flaws current excise system, please read the policy paper here: http://seatca.org/dmdocuments/SITT%20Philippines%20Affordability%20Policy%20Paper_Final.pdf

A more comprehensive discussion of these tax reforms can be found in the monograph “Taxing Health Risks” by the UP College of Law and HealthJustice (http://seatca.org/dmdocuments/Taxing%20Health%20Risks%20Philippines%202010.pdf)

The key message here is to keep raising taxes and prices so that consumption starts to decline and so that the government revenues from such tax increases can be used for tobacco control (including smuggling control), health promotion, universal health care, social development, and a host of other socially beneficial programs.

And of course, don’t believe the tobacco industry’s misrepresentation of the facts.

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